The Economics of Partisan Gerrymandering
by Anton Kolotilin and Alexander Wolitzky
Abstract: We study the problem of a partisan gerrymanderer who assigns voters to equipopulous districts to maximize his party's expected seat share. The designer faces both aggregate, district-level uncertainty (how many votes his party will receive) and idiosyncratic, voter-level uncertainty (which voters will vote for his party). "Segregate-pair districting", where weaker districts contain one type of voter, while stronger districts contain two, is optimal for the gerrymanderer. The optimal form of segregate-pair districting depends on the designer's popularity and the relative amounts of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty. When idiosyncratic uncertainty dominates, a designer with majority support pairs all voters, while a designer with minority support segregates opposing voters and pairs more favorable voters; these plans resemble uniform districting and "packing-and-cracking,'' respectively. When aggregate uncertainty dominates, the designer segregates moderate voters and pairs extreme voters; this "matching slices'' plan has received some attention in the literature. Estimating the model using precinct-level returns from recent US House elections shows that, in practice, idiosyncratic uncertainty dominates. We discuss implications for redistricting reform, political polarization, and detecting gerrymandering. Methodologically, we exploit a formal connection between gerrymandering---partitioning voters into districts---and information design---partitioning states of the world into signals.