General Seminar - Jenny Chan

Productivity and Inflation Dynamics

How does higher productivity affect inflation? Productivity shifts both supply and demand (through real incomes), and its effect on inflation depends on their relative magnitude and timing, and on how monetary policy responds. We distinguish between a one-off level shock that temporarily increases productivity above trend and a persistent increase in productivity growth. A one-off shock lowers marginal costs and lifts potential output, generating downward pressure on the price level. However, this is a level effect and once prices adjust, inflation returns to target. In contrast, higher productivity growth raises expected permanent income, which stimulates investment and consumption, pushing up on the natural real rate. Absent a tightening of monetary policy, this can generate inflationary pressures. Anticipation effects are central: if demand rises ahead of realised  productivity gains, inflation can rise even as productive capacity expands. In an open economy, the impact on inflation also depends on whether productivity gains occur in the tradable or the non-tradable sector. In summary, the inflationary consequences of higher productivity are a priori ambiguous and depend on the balance and timing of demand and supply responses, the composition of consumption across tradables and non-tradables, and importantly, the monetary policy response.